Andrew Jalil is a macroeconomist and economic historian. His research focuses on the causes and effects of financial crises, macroeconomic policy during the Great Depression, and the effects of monetary and fiscal policy.
Convocation Address Fall 2018
Working Papers (coming soon)
- "A New Chronology of U.S. Asset Price Bubbles, 1825-1929" with Matthew Botsch
- "Eating To Save The Planet" with Joshua Tasoff and Arturo Vargas Bustamante
A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Abstract. There are two major problems in identifying the output effects of banking panics of the pre-Great Depression era. First, it is not clear when panics occurred because prior panic series differ in their identification of panic episodes. Second, establishing the direction of causality is tricky. This paper addresses these two problems (i) by deriving a new panic series for the 1825-1929 period and (ii) by studying the output effects of major banking panics via vector autoregression (VAR) and narrative-based methods. The new series has important implications for the history of financial panics in the United States.
Monetary Intervention Really Did Mitigate Banking Panics During the Great Depression: Evidence Along the Atlanta Federal Reserve District Border, Journal of Economic History.
Abstract. This paper argues that monetary intervention alleviated banking panics during the early stages of the Great Depression. Throughout the course of the depression, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta aggressively intervened to stabilize its banking system. To assess the effectiveness of these policies, I analyze the performance of banks along counties straddling the border of the Atlanta Federal Reserve District. My results indicate that expansionary initiatives designed to inject liquidity into the banking system reduced the incidence of bank suspensions by 32 to 48% in some regions. Moreover, an analysis of the balance sheets of individual Federal Reserve Districts suggests that liquidity intervention did not expend large resources and that a concerted, system-wide interventionist policy response was feasible during the first half of the depression.
Comparing Tax and Spending Multipliers by Controlling for Monetary Policy, International Journal of Economics and Business Research.
Abstract. This paper derives empirical estimates for aggregate tax and spending multipliers. To deal with endogeneity concerns, I employ a large sample of fiscal consolidations identified through the narrative approach. To control for monetary policy, I study the output effects of fiscal consolidations in countries where monetary authorities are constrained in their ability to counteract shocks because they are in either a monetary union (and hence, lack an independent central bank) or a liquidity trap. My empirical estimates suggest that for fiscal consolidations, the tax multiplier is larger than the spending multiplier. The estimated tax multiplier is large—on the order of 3, suggesting strongly negative effects of tax increases on output.
Media Coverage: The Market Monetarist
Inflation Expectations and Recovery in Spring 1933, Explorations in Economics History.
Abstract. This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence — both quantitative and narrative — that indicates that the shift in inflation expectations played a causal role in stimulating the recovery.
Inflation Expectation in the U.S. in Fall 1933, Research in Economic History
Abstract. This paper documents how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933 using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933 — the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall — to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.
Principles of Economics (Fall 2011)
Macroeconomic Policy Since the Great Depression (Spring 2017)
- Macroeconomic Policy Since the Great Depression (Econ 495)
- Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory (Econ 251)
- Principles of Economics (Econ 101)
In the current economic climate, what should macroeconomic policymakers do to help the U.S. economy? This course analyzes the current macroeconomic policy challenges facing the United States from the vantage point of modern macroeconomics and economic history. Students will read state-of-the-art empirical research in macroeconomics and develop a sense for how macroeconomists conduct research and make policy recommendations. Special emphasis will be placed on exposing students to the major developments of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy since the Great Depression and on the role of history in guiding contemporary macroeconomic policy decisions and debates. Prerequisite: Economics 251.
This course is devoted to answering the fundamental questions macroeconomists study. Why are some countries rich and others poor? What causes economic growth? Why do we have recessions and what can policymakers do to fight them?
Students will develop a strong understanding of modern macroeconomic theory and empirical macroeconomic analysis. The course will focus on both long-run and short-run macroeconomic issues. Topics include economic growth, income inequality, unemployment, inflation, stabilization policy, government debt and deficits, international trade, exchange rates and financial crises. Special emphasis is placed on developing economic tools and applying those tools to understanding contemporary macroeconomic issues and policy debates. Prerequisite: Economics 102.
This course provides an introduction to economics. It examines both microeconomics, the study of the behavior of individual consumers and firms, and macroeconomics, the study of the aggregate economy. Special emphasis is placed on developing economic theory and applying economic tools to contemporary policy issues.
Economics and Occidental-Related Photos:
Where else would a macroeconomist shop?
At the headquarters of The Economist
On the set of Clueless (i.e. Occidental College) with my sister and mother.